STIJA POLL

  he South Texas Independent Journalists Association (STIJA) conducts the most respected poll in Brownsville and Cameron County. Nobody disputes its metrics. But like the major pollsters, STIJA is not without sin. STIJA predicted Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Clinton in 2016. 

"No matter the odds, that's the reason we play the game," said STIJA longtime and esteemed CEO Anthony Starr. "Trump won the electoral college, 306 to 232. He pulled it off by capturing traditionally Democratic states Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by a cumulative total of 70,000 votes. If these 46 electoral votes had swung, Clinton would have won, 278 to 260.

"Who will win in 2020?" posed Starr as he spoke to a small group of Cameron County Democrats led by County Treasurer David Betancourt. "According to our polls, Joe Biden will hold Clinton's 232 electoral votes. Trump initially hoped to steal support from the group formed by Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Virginia and Maine, but our numbers show that the only state that might be in play is Minnesota, but our latest figures have Biden comfortably in front by 9%.

"We calculate that Trump has 165 electoral votes," continued Starr. "We are including Texas, Nebraska's Second District and Maine's Second District even though some optimistic Democrats insist that these electoral votes are in play.

"The magic number is 270. Some combination of nine swing states in our deductions will determine the outcome. The swing states are Arizona (11), Florida (29), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Ohio (18) and Iowa (6). Presently, Trump leads in Georgia, Ohio and Iowa are toss-ups and the remainder favor Biden. Four years ago Trump prevailed in all these states.

"By our estimates if the 232 for Biden and the 165 for Trump hold true, Biden needs 38 electoral votes while Trump must collect 105 electoral votes. To give you an idea the reason most money is on Biden, if he were to triumph in just Florida and Wisconsin, he would clinch the election. There is an argument to be made that Biden could win in a landslide.

"What is the bottom line? Are there many independents who haven't decided? Can Trump's non-stop appearances throughout the country broaden the base with his frenzied rallies? Can he regain the support of the seniors whom he has scared to death with his COVID-19 mismanagement? Can he win back suburban women who find him disgusting as a person? 

"He was prevailing with the law-and-order sympathizers when the Portland riots were on the front pages, but the surfacing of the militia groups and Trump's perceived sympathies with the Neo-Nazis, Klansmen and other racist affiliations have made those who are still in the middle think twice about Trump's ability to keep the domestic peace. 

"He might emerge on the plus side when Amy Coney Barrett is confirmed as a Supreme Court Justice but how can this victory compensate for the thousands who have lost their lives to COVID-19 and the millions who have lost their jobs as a result of Trump's failure to combat the pandemic."

To everyone's surprise, Betancourt invited the entire assemblage to Mi Pueblito and covered the bill, which included ample quantities of beer since Starr's discourse had put the Democrats in a celebratory mood.  

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